Kerry and the black vote; Senator must court core constituency

Originally published in The Boston Herald October 3, 2004 

Copyright 2004 Boston Herald Inc.

By Howard Manly


The good news for John Kerry is that he had his breakthrough moment during the first presidential debate.

The bad news is that African-Americans, one of the Democratic Party's most stalwart constituencies, are less than enthusiastic about their party's nominee. That's quite surprising, especially considering the long-standing loyality and the 90 percent support for Al Gore during the 2000 presidential race. But in a poll released by the Pew Foundation, African-American support for Kerry has dropped to 73 percent, compared to 83 percent last month. In contrast, support for Bush has increased from 5 percent to 12 percent during the same time period.

More troublesome is the lack of enthusiasm blacks have shown for Kerry. In two Washington Post-ABC News surveys in September, fewer than half of blacks who back Kerry said they were very enthusiastic about him. White voters, who disproportionately favor Bush, do so with far more enthusiasm: Six in 10 white Bush voters are highly enthusiastic about their candidate.

Kerry has made some missteps along the way - sometimes with the best of intentions. Earlier this summer, for instance, the Kerry camp launched a $2 million advertising blitz aimed at African-Americans right before the Democratic National Convention. The 30-second spots, showing Kerry mingling with black voters and hugging a black man, were soundly criticized by members of the Congressional Black Caucus, many of whom believed the ads would not resonate among black voters. The ads were quickly pulled.

Though Kerry has not voted against affirmative action, his comments during a 1992 speech at Yale University in which he characterized the long-standing federal policy as ``inherently limited and divisive'' were brought up during the Democratic primaries and reopened old wounds. Several black leaders were irate, publicly chastising Kerry and telling reporters that during the recent debate over the U.S. Supreme Court case involving the University of Michigan's affirmative-action program, Kerry was nowhere to be found, and worse, could not be counted upon for support.

Nevertheless, Kerry still holds a commanding lead over Bush among African-Americans. David Bositis, a senior policy analyst at the Washington, D.C.-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said he conducted a similar poll during the 2000 campaign and learned that Al Gore had the support of only about 75 percent of African-Americans. Gore went on to earn the most African-American votes since Lyndon Baines Johnson.

``The Pew poll doesn't really mean anything at all,'' Bositis said. ``All that it shows is that Kerry must fight back. Blacks are not going to love Kerry the way they did Bill Clinton in terms of personality. But in terms of what he stands for he is the black candidate.''

That ought to be music to Kerry's ears. He once told a crowd of African-Americans that he wanted to be considered the second black president, right after Clinton. In a recent interview with the National Newspaper Publishers Association, a black-owned news wire, Kerry readily admitted that the black vote was not only important but could become the deciding factor in the anticipated close election.

``I think the black vote can decide this election,'' Kerry told the NNPA News Service. ``Not only am I not taking it for granted, I think it's the most important vote in the election.''

To shore up his appeal, Kerry hired the Rev. Jesse Jackson as a senior adviser. He also scheduled a ``religious summit meeting'' with Jackson and 300 black religious leaders from around the country to meet in Philadelphia tomorrow.

``Kerry is actually on the upswing,'' said Harvard Law School professor Charles Ogletree. ``The African-American community wants to very carefully choose its president and not be taken for granted. What Kerry has done in the weeks following the Democratic National Convention is to finally realize the need to have national and respected black leaders reach out to the community.''

Ogletree was particularly pleased to see Kerry demonstrate his focus and determination during the first presidential debate. Ogletree moderated a similar debate between Kerry and William Weld during their U.S. Senate campaign. ``Kerry's propensity to engage in nuance is a central factor in his inability to electrify folks,'' Ogletree said. ``But after Thursday night's debate, Kerry has entered a new era. There's no more flip-flopping, no more indecisiveness, no more nuance. He is finally ready to run - and win.''

That's much easier said than done. The African-American community is no longer interested in hearing about the same old issues of the civil rights movement, largely because significant numbers have moved from the cities to middle- and upper-class surburbs - and if not joining the Republican Party at least voting Republican on issues such as lower taxes, national security and business development.

Richard Taylor, a black Republican and former state secretary of transportation, said having Jackson out on the stump is not a bad thing. ``But for any candidate that must rely on electrifying one particular sector on one particular set of narrow issues - and not the Iraq war and terrorism issue that appears to be at the center of this national campaign - it's going to be an uphill fight,'' Taylor said. ``More and more people of color are focused on bread-and-butter issues and the Republican Party with its pro-business development is appealing to them.''

Kerry has shown no willingness to separate one group from another, instead opting to talk to everyone as Americans.

And so far, most blacks understand. ``The main dissatisfaction that blacks have had with Kerry is that he is running behind Bush in the polls,'' Bositis said. ``That's it. They want to retire Bush and they want Kerry to win. And any disappointment that blacks may have shown in recent polls demonstrates the intensity of feelings that are involved in this election. It's sort of like the Red Sox fans if the Yankees are playing in the World Series. The Red Sox fans wouldn't care too much about the other team, but they would definitely cheer for the Yankees' demise.''

That's understandable. But translating passion into votes is another matter, and if Bush is able to chip away at Kerry's core constituency and pull perhaps 12 percent of that vote, as recent polls suggest, Kerry's dream of becoming the second black president might have to wait awhile.