Originally published in The Boston Herald October 3, 2004
Copyright 2004 Boston Herald Inc.
By Howard Manly
The good news for John Kerry is that he had his breakthrough moment during the first presidential debate.
The bad news is that African-Americans,
one of the Democratic Party's most stalwart constituencies, are less
than enthusiastic about their party's nominee. That's quite surprising,
especially considering the long-standing loyality and the 90 percent
support for Al Gore during the 2000 presidential race. But in a poll
released by the Pew Foundation, African-American
support for Kerry has dropped to 73 percent, compared to 83 percent
last month. In contrast, support for Bush has increased from 5 percent
to 12 percent during the same time period.
More
troublesome is the lack of enthusiasm blacks have shown for Kerry. In
two Washington Post-ABC News surveys in September, fewer than half of
blacks who back Kerry said they were very enthusiastic about him. White
voters, who disproportionately favor Bush, do so with far more
enthusiasm: Six in 10 white Bush voters are highly enthusiastic about
their candidate.
Kerry has made some
missteps along the way - sometimes with the best of intentions. Earlier
this summer, for instance, the Kerry camp launched a $2 million
advertising blitz aimed at African-Americans right before the
Democratic National Convention. The 30-second spots, showing Kerry
mingling with black voters and hugging a black man,
were soundly criticized by members of the Congressional Black Caucus,
many of whom believed the ads would not resonate among black voters.
The ads were quickly pulled.
Though Kerry has not voted against affirmative action,
his comments during a 1992 speech at Yale University in which he
characterized the long-standing federal policy as ``inherently limited
and divisive'' were brought up during the Democratic primaries and
reopened old wounds. Several black leaders were
irate, publicly chastising Kerry and telling reporters that during the
recent debate over the U.S. Supreme Court case involving the University
of Michigan's affirmative-action program, Kerry was nowhere to be found, and worse, could not be counted upon for support.
Nevertheless, Kerry still holds a commanding lead over Bush among
African-Americans.
David Bositis, a senior policy analyst at the Washington, D.C.-based
Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said he conducted a
similar poll during the 2000 campaign and learned that Al Gore had the
support of only about 75 percent of African-Americans. Gore went on to
earn the most African-American votes since Lyndon Baines Johnson.
``The
Pew poll doesn't really mean anything at all,'' Bositis said. ``All
that it shows is that Kerry must fight back. Blacks are not going to
love Kerry the way they did Bill Clinton in terms of personality. But
in terms of what he stands for he is the black candidate.''
That ought to be music to Kerry's ears. He once told a crowd of African-Americans
that he wanted to be considered the second black president, right after
Clinton. In a recent interview with the National Newspaper Publishers
Association, a black-owned news wire, Kerry readily admitted that the
black vote was not only important but could become the deciding factor
in the anticipated close election.
``I
think the black vote can decide this election,'' Kerry told the NNPA
News Service. ``Not only am I not taking it for granted, I think it's
the most important vote in the election.''
To
shore up his appeal, Kerry hired the Rev. Jesse Jackson as a senior
adviser. He also scheduled a ``religious summit meeting'' with Jackson
and 300 black religious leaders from around the country to meet in
Philadelphia tomorrow.
``Kerry is actually on the upswing,'' said Harvard Law School professor Charles Ogletree. ``The African-American
community wants to very carefully choose its president and not be taken
for granted. What Kerry has done in the weeks following the Democratic
National Convention is to finally realize the need to have national and
respected black leaders reach out to the community.''
Ogletree
was particularly pleased to see Kerry demonstrate his focus and
determination during the first presidential debate. Ogletree moderated
a similar debate between Kerry and William Weld during their U.S.
Senate campaign. ``Kerry's propensity to engage in nuance is a central
factor in his inability to electrify folks,'' Ogletree said. ``But
after Thursday night's debate, Kerry has entered a new era. There's no
more flip-flopping, no more indecisiveness, no more nuance. He is
finally ready to run - and win.''
That's much easier said than done. The African-American
community is no longer interested in hearing about the same old issues
of the civil rights movement, largely because significant numbers have
moved from the cities to middle- and upper-class surburbs - and if not
joining the Republican Party at least voting Republican on issues such
as lower taxes, national security and business development.
Richard
Taylor, a black Republican and former state secretary of
transportation, said having Jackson out on the stump is not a bad
thing. ``But for any candidate that must rely on electrifying one
particular sector on one particular set of narrow issues - and not the
Iraq war and terrorism issue that appears to be at the center of this
national campaign - it's going to be an uphill fight,'' Taylor said.
``More and more people of color are focused on bread-and-butter issues
and the Republican Party with its pro-business development is appealing
to them.''
Kerry has shown no willingness to separate one group from another, instead opting to talk to everyone as Americans.
And
so far, most blacks understand. ``The main dissatisfaction that blacks
have had with Kerry is that he is running behind Bush in the polls,''
Bositis said. ``That's it. They want to retire Bush and they want Kerry
to win. And any disappointment that blacks may have shown in recent
polls demonstrates the intensity of feelings that are involved in this
election. It's sort of like the Red Sox fans if the Yankees are playing
in the World Series. The Red Sox fans wouldn't care too much about the
other team, but they would definitely cheer for the Yankees' demise.''
That's
understandable. But translating passion into votes is another matter,
and if Bush is able to chip away at Kerry's core constituency and pull
perhaps 12 percent of that vote, as recent polls suggest, Kerry's dream
of becoming the second black president might have to wait awhile.