Gallup Poll: Obama 52%, McCain 42% Among Likely Voters

From Gallup -- Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters. Gallup further reports - - the average Obama lead over McCain among traditional likely voters since Oct. 6 has been five points, but that lead has expanded over the last several day's reports, and Obama's current 52-42% lead among this group is the largest to date. Gallup has increased its estimate of turnout in the election slightly to 64% (from the previous 60%), based on internal calculations which point toward the higher turnout number, and this 64% estimate is reflected in the traditional likely voter calculations. [MORE]

Blacks Set for High Turnout

Black voters are scoring highly this election season on several election interest and voting measures, and thus constitute a higher percentage of Gallup's projected likely voter pool than in previous elections. Additionally, blacks report having received election-related contact from the Obama campaign at a higher rate than do whites, although many fewer blacks have been contacted by the McCain campaign. [MORE]

Obama Has Lead Among Latinos

From the Wash. Post Polls show Sen. Barack Obama leading McCain 2 to 1 among Hispanics, after being trounced by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton among such voters in the Democratic primaries. (President Bush won 40 percent of their vote in 2004.) More than two-thirds of Hispanics said they trust Obama to handle the economy, compared with 27 percent who named McCain.

Many here also said they remain upset about the ugly immigration debate last year in which many Republicans demanded full-scale deportation of illegal immigrants. Although McCain then favored a more moderate approach that was supported by many Hispanics, he has taken a somewhat harder line in the campaign and has not been able to overcome worries about his party on the issue.

The Hispanic vote could be decisive in Colorado, where the group makes up 12 percent of the electorate. Latino voters throughout the West feel empowered this year, particularly here and in New Mexico and Nevada, where their demographic growth and renewed political engagement have made them a force. The three states went for Bush four years ago but are now tossups or lean toward Obama. Most polls show Obama with a solid lead in Colorado.

In 2004, Bush's appeal to Latinos helped him win Colorado despite Democrats' besting Republicans for congressional and statewide offices. The Democratic winners included the Salazar bothers -- U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar and U.S. Rep. John Salazar, moderate Democrats who are popular with Latino voters and could help drive support for Obama.