Small Black presence in swing states may blunt impact

Many of the most hard-fought states in this year's presidential election have very small black populations, blunting their impact in the battle between President Bush and Democrat John Kerry. About 12.4 percent of the nation's population is black. Two key swing states do have higher percentages of blacks than the national average (Florida, 15.5 percent, and Michigan, 20.2 percent). But of the 20 states where Bush and Kerry have spent the most time and money campaigning, 15 have smaller black populations than the national percentage -- and 10 of them are significantly smaller. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia all have black populations of 4 percent or less. In a separate study, Bill Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, examined 17 of the most closely contested states and found that only Florida, Michigan and Arkansas have larger black populations than nationally. [more ]