Which is more credible: exit polls or Diebold?

What is puzzling everyone at the moment is the discrepancy between the exit polls and the votes that are being reported. The way the pundits are framing this issue is: what went wrong with the exit polls? But what reasons do we actually have for thinking the exit polls were wrong? Previously, exit polls have reflected fairly closely the finally recorded vote. (On MSNBC, I heard Matthews suggesting that Republicans not liking to talk to pollsters explained the discrepancy: that's a new one to me.) The technology of exit polling has not changed. There has been a change in voting technology, however -- namely, electronic voting machines. Neither electronic voting machines nor exit polls leave a paper trail. (Actually, exit polls do leave a paper trail, but it has no legal import.) So why should we believe electronic voting machines more than exit polls? [more]

• Exit polls showed Kerry won Ohio and Florida [more] and [more] and [more] and [more] and [more]
  
• When the UN monitors international elections, the way they determine if the election process is credible or fraudulent is to take exit polls and compare the actual results to those of the exit poll. Exit polls in America have always been accurate, confirming that our elections are fair and honest -- except in the last two elections in which President Bush was involved. The mainstream media, of course, will not raise the obvious question as to what is wrong with this picture.  All last night, this question was not raised once, while the question of should we actually count all votes was pushed again and again. [more]
  
• In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN of more than 3 million voters by just 5355 votes. Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. This morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters. [more]
  
• Statement From RNC Communications Director Jim Dyke On Anticipated Kerry-Edwards and Democrat Election Day Litigation Strategy [more]
  
• A fixed Election, a Failed Party, and a Fired Up Moderate Independent [more]