When the race gets close in a key swing state, the politicos play all the angles, and here's an eight ball that Michigan Republicans are trying to stick in the corner pocket: "The African-American vote is going to swing a lot more to the president's way than in other elections," said Matt Davis, a Michigan GOP spokesman. His rationale: Black voters will go to the polls to vote for a state issue banning gay marriage and naturally vote for Bush because he supports a constitutional prohibition on gay marriage. Don't bet the farm on it. President Bush got 8 percent of the black vote in 2000, and Republicans might want to look elsewhere for crucial votes again this year, said independent analysts and a number of black residents interviewed. Some predict a bigger-than-usual turnout in the black community because of lingering anger over the disputed Florida result in 2000, Bush's Iraq policy and the war's cost in lives and money, and disgruntlement over the continuing economic troubles in the state's urban centers. "Our concerns are finances and stability and work," said David Ward, a retired engineer taking a break from registering voters in a crowded Home Depot parking lot. "I think there will be a big turnout because of the lack of employment that has hit the black community very hard," said Ward, stressing he was speaking independent of his voter-registration role. "The African-American community is looking for a change."