The demand for food as we know, is somewhat inelastic, it's no surprise those prices didn't drop ( that's fancy econ talk for we gotta eat) , certainly less elastic than clothing , which declined in price and probably in no small part due to weakened consumer demand. Hence, clothing demand is probably a better indicator of where we are and headed economically. Oil's price as an indicator is subject to many non consumers influences , currently at least , to be of any forecasting value other than it's impact in reducing demand for other items , and that's bad news . We called it stagflation back in the early 70's , A prior time that the oil boys had us by the crotch I recommend David Halberstam's " The Reckoning " for and insightful and entertaining read on that era , but back to today .