From The Business Insider July 18, 2012 President Barack Obama has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney among Latino voters to nearly an astounding 50 points, according to a new Latino Decisions poll released Wednesday. The poll represents a 5-point swing from June and takes into account two big events that likely boosted Obama's support: His administration's shift in immigration policy and the Supreme Court decision on Arizona's SB 1070 immigration law.
This month's survey is the first time Obama has garnered 70 percent of the vote in Latino Decisions' tracking, and it underscores the challenge Romney will face in making inroads with Latino voters. Obama now has a bigger lead than he did in 2008, when he got 67 percent of the Latino vote to John McCain's 31 percent. The GOP has fallen hard among Latinos since George W. Bush grabbed 44 percent of the demographic's vote in 2004.
But Latino Decisions notes that the challenge for Obama continues to come in boosting Latino enthusiasm to 2008 levels, when the demographic accounted for about 9 percent of the vote. The shift in immigration policy and the immigration law ruling both helped that cause. Latino Decisions found that 49 percent of Latino voters said they were more excited about voting for Obama after the shift in policy.
Sylvia Manzano, a senior analyst at Latino Decisions, told Business Insider last month that Obama's challenge of the Arizona immigration law could also boost turnout.
"Latinos say that immigration is not the most important issue, but if Republicans keep talking about it and talking about it in a way that is offensive, then it starts to become a cue," Manzano said.
From The Hotline July 17, 2012
A Numbers Game
"High voter turnout among African Americans helped get" Obama elected a report released on July 17 by the Leaders of the National Urban League "said although blacks voted overwhelmingly" for Obama in 2008, "if the number of African American voters drops" even 5% this year "it could tip the outcome in some vital states. If that voter turnout rate returned to the 2004 election levels" - 60% compared with nearly 65% in 2008 - "the report estimated that Obama" would lose in NC "and would have a tough time" in OH and VA. "The group said it saw a connection between the unusually high black voter turnout in 2008 and tough new voter registration and vote identification requirements that have since been passed or proposed in dozens" of states. Conservative groups and GOP-led state legislatures "that have proposed the new rules say they will help ensure fair voting and cut back on fraud" (Charles, Reuters, 7/17).