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Antonio Villaraigosa's story would be compelling in any language. The son of a Mexican immigrant, raised by a single mother, a high school dropout, he became speaker of the California Assembly, an adviser to John Kerry's presidential campaign and, now, the front-running candidate for mayor. A Villaraigosa victory would mark another milestone for Hispanics, whose political influence has been expanding from California to the White House. But to unseat Mayor James Hahn, a fellow Democrat, Villaraigosa must navigate a thicket of racial and ethnic politics in the nation's second-largest city. With the election less than six weeks away, the race is challenging assumptions that blacks are reluctant to support Hispanic candidates because of lingering tensions over who gets the spoils of political power. Blacks were a key factor in Hahn's 2001 runoff victory over Villaraigosa, with eight in 10 black votes going to Hahn. But if Hahn, who is white, inherited the black vote from his father - a long-serving county supervisor lionized in the black South Los Angeles - the days of political hand-me-downs appear to be over. This time around, a string of marquee black endorsements for Villaraigosa coupled with the mayor's lukewarm black support in the March 8 primary suggest the vote is in play. "It's the politics of subtraction. (Villaraigosa) has to subtract a large element from the mayor's base - African Americans," said John Pitney, a politician scientist at Claremont McKenna College. "That will be a giant step toward winning." [more]

Villaraigosa's Race to Lose: The Los Angeles Times (4/13) reports, "Antonio Villaraigosa has opened an 18-point lead over incumbent James K. Hahn in the Los Angeles mayoral race, with nearly every large voting bloc supporting his effort to bounce Hahn from City Hall, according to a new Times poll. The survey shows that Hahn has yet to rebuild the historic coalition of South L.A. blacks and San Fernando Valley whites that thrust him into office four years ago.