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Originally published in The Hotline on March 10, 2005
Copyright 2005 The National Journal Group, Inc.

Roll Call's Rothenberg writes that while Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) "has the kind of political assets that most candidates only dream of," he still "faces a steep climb" in the SEN race. "To his credit," he "acknowledges the daunting challenge -- but he also notes, quite rightly, that there may be no better time in the near future for him to make a Senate run." "Ford seems to have boundless energy and is always in motion. ... Poised and articulate? You bet." Ford "has gone out of his way to establish a reputation as a moderate -- a necessity in a statewide bid." He "isn't just a political wanna-be. He's an experienced politician who would bring obvious assets" to the race. And "while some observers assert that Ford's biggest problem in a statewide race is his race, that's probably not the case." I don't know whether TN "is ready" to elect an African American to the Senate, but Ford "has two bigger hurdles to overcome than the color of his skin." First, TN "has been trending" GOP for a decade. Dems haven't surpassed 48% in any WH or SEN race since '90. "Ford's second problem is different than the first, but it is no less serious. It's his family in general and his uncle in particular." State Sen. John Ford (D) "is in the local newspapers regularly. There's the investigation of him by the Senate Ethics Committee. There are the tales of his multiple families. ... And there's the litany of colorful episodes: allegations of repeated reckless driving, an arrest for shooting a handgun at a truck driver, and questions about spending campaign funds on personal matters." A Rep. Ford backer: "John is a big problem. He is fulfilling every stereotype [white] people have about black people." Rep. Ford "prefers to argue that voters can distinguish between himself and his uncle, and he dismisses suggestions that John Ford will have a major impact" on the race. Still, the Dems' "inability to win open-seat Senate contests in the South" in '04 "is a lesson Ford can't afford to ignore." Ford argues that John Kerry won't be on the ballot in TN in '06, and there is no WH race to define him or his party. Instead, Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) "will be seeking re-election, and that could actually help Ford." But even Dems "close to Ford acknowledge" that he "is an underdog who must run a race that's both daring and error-free." Unless GOPers "destroy each other" or a Dem "wave washes over" TN, "it's hard to see Ford winning next year." Still, '06 "may be the best chance Ford will ever see. And Ford is not the kind of person anyone should underestimate" (3/10).