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Originally published in The Hotline February 3, 2005

Roll Call's Cillizza reports Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) "faces a daunting record of failure for black candidates seeking Senate seats in the South." Recent examples include '02 TX nominee Ron Kirk (D), '90/'96 NC nominee Harvey Gantt (D), and '04 GA nominee Denise Majette (D). "Both Kirk and Gantt became national figures during their respective races -- raising millions of dollars" from Dems across the country -- "but ultimately came up well short of victory due to an inability to convince a significant number of white voters to cast a ballot for them." Joint Cntr for Political and Econ. Studies analyst David Bositis said that "there is still racially polarized voting in the South," but added that because TN is a border state Ford may run into less of a roadblock than Gantt and Kirk did. Ever since his '96 election at age 26, "Ford has been seen as perhaps the best chance for a black candidate to break the streak of statewide defeats in the South. Prior to the overwhelming victory" of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), "Ford was the odds-on bet to be the first black male" Dem elected to the Senate. He "initially contemplated" an '00 run against Sen. Bill Frist (R) "but ultimately backed away from what was seen as a long-shot candidacy." In '02, "Ford deferred" to then-Rep. Bob Clement (D) in an open-seat race "For the past two years, Ford has been traveling the state to raise his profile and beef up his campaign war chest" in preparation for the race. "He has also recently hired Harrison Hickman to handle the polling" for his bid. "Ford is likely to have nominal primary opposition" in state Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D). Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell (D) "has not ruled out the contest but is not considered a likely candidate." Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) pollster Fred Yang said past SEN races by black candidates are "absolutely instructive. ... Ford can learn things to do and things not to do," especially in the case of Gantt's two losses. Gantt said that the most important lesson he learned during his races is that a black candidate has "to run a campaign that appeals to a broad cross-section of citizens. When people leave a district or a more well-defined constituency they often miscalculate how they leverage their appeal to [a] broad constituency." Majette echoed that sentiment, pointing out that in order for Ford to win, "he is going to have to find a way to connect with people across the state" and not "focus on one particular gender or demographic." "The other major potential pitfall for Ford as a result of his race is the increased willingness of voters to accept the portrayal of black politicians as liberals, a term of derision and, typically, political defeat in the South." Gantt: "He is going to be labeled a liberal because people make an assumption that he is going to be interested in issues of equity and justice." Gantt said that for Ford to be successful, he must "spend considerable time developing a very appealing platform to the great middle." "Obviously wary of the liberal tag, Ford has carefully cast himself as a moderate during his four terms in Congress, even joining the centrist Blue Dog Coalition. Ford further burnished his moderate credentials" when he ran a "quixotic challenge" for House Minority Leader in '02 against Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). "Past history proves that a record of moderation may not be enough. Kirk was widely respected by the white Dallas business community for his handling of the city's economy but when put in a partisan federal race, he found himself victimized by the liberal label" -- as many Southern Dems do. Kirk "insisted that race was not the deciding factor in his loss, but acknowledged the reality of history." Kirk: "Until somebody runs and wins, it always matters" (2/3).