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Originally published in The Boston Globe, November 3, 2004
Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company
By Mark Jurkowitz, Globe Staff
With
George W. Bush on the verge of being anointed the winner of the battle
for the White House by the networks this morning, the exit polls used
to make projections of winners in key battleground states appear to
have been flawed for the second presidential election in a row.
Although
some of John F. Kerry's leads in the state exit polls narrowed during
the course of the day yesterday, there was a significant discrepancy
between the actual vote total and the polling numbers, particularly in
two states believed to be keys to the outcome.
While
the exit data had Kerry winning Florida and Ohio by a narrow margin,
the actual tabulated vote late last night had Bush carrying Florida by
about five points and winning Ohio by two. In addition, a projected
Kerry win of about five points in Wisconsin turned into a very tight
contest, and what was projected as a close race in North Carolina
turned into a double-digit win for Bush.
On
election night four years ago, shortly after NBC called Florida's
electoral votes for Al Gore, Bush's key strategist, Karl Rove, appeared
on that network to complain that the call was "premature." It took 36
days to sort out the results in that state and in the presidential
election itself.
There was
an eerie sense of deja vu last night when at around 8:30 the issue of
exit polling problems surfaced again, as the networks began reporting
on Bush campaign claims that those polls were not accurately reflecting
the strength of the president's vote in crucial states such as Ohio and
Florida.
Reporting from the
White House, NBC's David Gregory said that "one [Bush] adviser tells me
they are making a strong comeback in Florida. . . . They're feeling a
lot better about Florida at this point." On the Fox News Channel,
analyst William Kristol observed: "We know that in certain states. . .
. Bush is outperforming the exit polls." At around 10 p.m., with the
pivotal state of Pennsylvania not yet placed in the Kerry column by the
networks, CBS explained that the absentee ballots there were not
necessarily in synch with the exit polling.
During
the course of election day, the exit polling results that circulated
through the media seemed to point toward a strong performance for Kerry
in a number of battleground states, including Florida, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Michigan, and New
Hampshire.
The exit
polling is funded by a consortium of media outlets and sold to a small
number of subscribers for more than $20,000. However, the early
exit poll data
appeared to be leaked to various political web logs, or blogs, many of
them leaning left politically. The blogs Daily Kos, the Wonkette and
MyDD, as well as Slate online magazine, reported heavy traffic after
posting the poll data. The Drudge Report also ran exit poll results.
It
was unclear who leaked the numbers, since none of the blogs mentioned
their sources. The leaks were considered an important factor in causing
the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 18 points, after it had been
up as much as 100 points earlier.
Several
networks contacted by the Globe last night said they were not aware of
any major problems with the exit polling conducted by two firms, Edison
Media Research and Mitofsky International.
NBC
News vice president Bill Wheatley said, "There's always some variation
[but] I don't see anything startling." He did acknowledge, however,
that "the biggest variation" between the exit poll numbers and actual
vote had occurred in Pennsylvania, which the network eventually called
for Kerry.
"To me, it
looks like both Ohio and Florida are going to go very, very late,"
Wheatley added. "Then we'll see if we can call them. But it won't be
based on exit polls."
After the Florida fiasco in 2000 and a problem with
exit poll data
during the 2002 election, the consortium of networks scrapped the old
Voter News Service and opted for a new system in which the Associated
Press would have responsibility for the vote counting and Edison and
Mitofsky would handle the exit polling and vote tabulation at key
precincts. One other major difference between the 2000 and 2004
elections was the networks' determination to be much more cautious
about projecting winners in closely contested states.
For
much of last night, the television outlets took great pains to inform
their viewers of their decision not to rush to judgment. CBS anchor Dan
Rather told voters, "If you say, 'my goodness aren't things going
slow?' the answer is 'yes by design.' " CNN's Judy Woodruff interviewed
the network's political director about why he had not immediately
called the solidly Republican state of South Carolina after the polls
closed there. "We don't want to jump the gun," she explained.
But
if the networks ultimately concluded that viewers were in for a long
grinding night, that was at odds with the mood earlier in the day when
the circulating exit polls invigorated Kerry supporters and caused some
pundits to hint at a win by the Democratic senator.
In
a midafternoon CNN appearance, "Crossfire" cohosts Tucker Carlson and
Paul Begala both agreed that reports of massive voter turnout seemed to
favor the challenger. "If people are standing outside for three hours
to vote, you've got to ask yourself, 'Are they really Republicans?' "
said Carlson.
Just as
the polls were getting ready to close, a panel of pundits on the Fox
News Channel seemed to be conceding the race to Kerry. "I think it's
pretty clear, Bush was not able to sell Iraq as a continuation of the
war on terror," said political contributor Fred Barnes.
The
difference in moods at the two camps was summed up by two ABC reports
early last evening. At the White House with the Bush campaign, Terry
Moran described a "fighting spirit," but added that "this is not a
position, this close, this late, that they expected George W. Bush to
be in." Dean Reynolds, traveling with the Kerry team, reported that
"they've been feeling good the last several days about their position.
. . . For the most part, they're content."
But
as the accuracy of the early exit polls came into question and Bush
maintained popular vote leads in Ohio and Florida after midnight, the
earlier optimism in the Kerry camp seemed to be fading. Putting it
simply on CNN, Democratic consultant James Carville said, "I think
Kerry's got to draw an inside straight."