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Originally published in the Columbus Dispatch (Ohio) on October 4, 2004

By: Jonathan Riskind, THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

When the race gets close in a key swing state, the politicos play all the angles, and here's an eight ball that Michigan Republicans are trying to stick in the corner pocket:

"The African-American vote is going to swing a lot more to the president's way than in other elections," said Matt Davis, a Michigan GOP spokesman.

His rationale: Black voters will go to the polls to vote for a state issue banning gay marriage and naturally vote for Bush because he supports a constitutional prohibition on gay marriage.

Don't bet the farm on it.

President Bush got 8 percent of the black vote in 2000, and Republicans might want to look elsewhere for crucial votes again this year, said independent analysts and a number of black residents interviewed.

Some predict a bigger-than-usual turnout in the black community because of lingering anger over the disputed Florida result in 2000, Bush's Iraq policy and the war's cost in lives and money, and disgruntlement over the continuing economic troubles in the state's urban centers.

"Our concerns are finances and stability and work," said David Ward, a retired engineer taking a break from registering voters in a crowded Home Depot parking lot.

"I think there will be a big turnout because of the lack of employment that has hit the black community very hard," said Ward, stressing he was speaking independent of his voter-registration role. "The African-American community is looking for a change."

For sure, the gay-marriage ban is popular among many black voters here, perhaps more so than in the state overall.

The proposed ban was supported statewide 54 percent to 37 percent in a recent statewide survey by the Michigan-based independent polling firm EPIC-MRA. Among black voters, that backing stood at 64 percent.

But that doesn't mean black voters will link the state issue with Bush's support for a federal constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage -- Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry is opposed to such an amendment -- and vote for the Republican in higher numbers, said Ed Sarpolus, an EPIC-MRA pollster.

"Bush's numbers among blacks are about the same as four years ago," Sarpolus said. "Just because blacks vote one way on gay marriage doesn't mean they will change the way they vote for president."

A tendency for many blacks to be conservative on social-values issues such as gay marriage and abortion doesn't override concerns about the economy and where the GOP stands on issues such as affirmative action, Sarpolus and other analysts said.

A poll last week in the Detroit Free Press showed black support for the amendment not as strong as the EPIC-MRA poll indicated, but one black community leader said he believes sentiment is high both for the amendment and against Bush.

"I sense there is support (in the black community) for that (gay-marriage) amendment," said the Rev. Lonnie Peek, of the Greater Christ Baptist Church, who hosts a local radio show. "Will that translate into votes for Bush? No way."

It's true Bush is offering a strong challenge for Michigan's 17 electoral votes, a state that Democrat Al Gore won by 5 percentage points in 2000 and one that Kerry can't afford to cede this year.

The race is a statistical dead heat, according to several polls released in the past week in a state racked by high unemployment and job-loss numbers and governed by a popular Democratic chief executive, Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

That may be because so-called security moms are sticking with a commander in chief they believe can better wage the war on terror. It may be because Kerry isn't doing as well as he could in conservative Democratic areas such as Macomb County north of Detroit, where the term "Reagan Democrats" was coined.

But one place Kerry isn't lacking in support here is the black community, judging by interviews at places such as the Final Kut barber shop, where the ribbing flies as fast as hair is shorn and Pistons banners hang near television sets showing the game of the day.

Hoots and hollers greeted a reporter who had the temerity to ask if anyone in the place was backing Bush because of their support for the gay-marriage initiative.

"That's a light issue," barber Edric Blackwell said. "I'm talking about funding for schools. You look in the paper and you see all kinds of cutbacks that are hurting the urban kids."

Barber Steven Edwards agreed: "It's not going to have any effect. Everybody is still going for Kerry."

GOP spokesman Davis said that the marriage law, along with other outreach efforts in the black community on such issues as home ownership, could more than double the black vote for Bush in Michigan -- or at least boost it to the 11 percent to 15 percent range.

But Bishop Keith Butler of the Word of Faith International Christian Center, a Republican and former Detroit City Council member, is considerably more cautious in his assessment of whether there will be a significant boost for Bush among fellow blacks.

Butler doesn't see the black vote for Bush rising past 10 or 11 percent, although he noted that even an incremental increase could make a difference in a close Michigan presidential race.

Butler said the Bush campaign didn't put the marriage amendment on the state ballot, but added, "I'm sure the campaign is reminding people this is where the president stands."